It’s Back: Previewing the 2011-12 NBA season
To quote the famous YouTube video “David After Dentist”, I have just one question: Is this real life? After 149 days of uncertainty, doubt and predictable disagreement, the NBA Lockout ended. There were times when I predicted there wouldn’t be a season at all. There were more optimistic times when I thought we would have a full 82-game schedule. Either way, lets give thanks for the simple fact that NBA action will be back in our cities and on our television screens this winter. Without further adieu, here are my predictions for the 66 game 2011-12 NBA season.
1.) Division Winners:
Atlantic: Boston Celtics
It’s going to be mostly a two-team race in this division between the Celtics and New York Knicks to win the Atlantic. While the Philadelphia 76ers are getting a lot of praise and are being considered as a serious sleeper team, they simply just can’t match the talent that Boston or New York has. Despite their aging roster, I’m taking the Celtics to finish ahead of the Knicks.
Central: Chicago Bulls
Yeah, there’s no need to really explain this one. The other four teams in this division are the Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers and Bucks. In other words, the Bulls could win the division by 15+ games, although I do like what Indiana has done to improve this off-season. They can finish second.
Southeast: Miami Heat
A majority of NBA writers believe that the Heat are going to win it all this year, so the least they could do is win their own division, right? Atlanta and Orlando, both of whom are in this division, are wallowing in NBA purgatory (mediocrity) and the Wizards and Bobcats, well, are the Wizards and Bobcats. Enough said.
Northwest: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Denver Nuggets could be a sleeper team that gets hot and steals this division crown away from OKC, but I’m not counting on it. This may just be “the year” for the Thunder, and Kevin Durant could be leading this team to the best record in the Western Conference. Portland could provide a scare for the division crown for a short while, but the Thunder is the cream of the crop here.
Pacific: Los Angeles Lakers
To those of whom are betting on the Clippers to take this division: Pump the brakes on the Clippers bandwagon. Obviously, the less popular Clippers will be greatly improved with the additions of the three C’s (Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler), but talent on paper doesn’t always guarantee immediate rewards. Just like the Miami Heat last season, the Clippers are going to need time to work out all the kinks with a revamped roster. The Lakers have had about as miserable of an off-season possible, but I know this much: Never bet against Kobe Bryant.
Southwest: Dallas Mavericks
The defending champs feel that they aren’t receiving they’re due credit – and they’re probably right. Despite losing Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea this off-season, Dallas did acquire Lamar Odom and Vince Carter to help make up for it. This will likely be the most interesting and competitive division in the league though, as the Spurs and Grizzlies will certainly be challenging for the divisional title as well. Either one of those two teams could easily steal the Mavericks mojo and take over this division, but for now I’ll stick with the defending champions.
2.) Conference Finals:
Eastern Conference: Chicago Bulls over Miami Heat
Yup, that’s right. I’m predicting that the Miami Heat don’t even make NBA Finals, let alone win them. I think that the pressure to win a title THIS YEAR will eventually be the demise of the Heat, and the more-focused, more balanced Bulls will steal the limelight from Miami. Reigning MVP Derrick Rose and the defense-oriented Bulls were within reaching distance of the NBA Finals last season and I think that provides the extra motivation and experience for the Bulls to dethrone the Heat as Eastern Conference champions. However, don’t forget about the Celtics and Knicks, either of whom could very well win the East as well.
Western Conference: Oklahoma City Thunder over Dallas Mavericks
This is a popular prediction, but for valid reasons. Durant seems poised to be ready to reach the NBA Finals for the first time, and I think in the long run, the loss of Tyson Chandler will prove to hurt the Mavericks much more than most people believe. The young and talented Thunder seem to have just about all the pieces to finally make the leap to the NBA Finals, and eventually Dallas’ aging roster will run out of gas. I don’t think the Clippers are ready for the big stage quite yet in their first year as a basically newly formed team, and basing these predictions off of current rosters, how can I put the Lakers in the conference finals? That team is one big injury (Kobe, Pau, Bynum) away from being mediocre at best. However, the Western Conference truly is wide open as the Grizzlies, Nuggets and Spurs could all reach the conference finals if they peak at the right time. For now, I’ll stick with Oklahoma City over Dallas.
3.) NBA Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder over Chicago Bulls
Boy, is this going to be a great showdown. Durant and Westbrook vs Derrick Rose and company? That’s going to be rich. I think that by the end of this season, it’s likely that Kevin Durant will be widely considered the best player int he game today. Yes, he’s that good. As great as it would be for Rose and the Bulls to win their first title since the Jordan-era, Durant and Westbrook will prove to be too much for any team to handle after they finally figure out how to share the ball with each other. In the end, I’ll take the Thunder over the Bulls in six games.
4.) Regular-season MVP: Kevin Durant
Durant has won back-to-back scoring titles, and considering how good the Thunder look on paper, I think Durant has to be the favorite for MVP. I’m tempted to choose Dwyane Wade, 
seeing as a player of his stature can’t go an entire career without ONE MVP award, right? I’m also tempted to choose Kobe Bryant here. Call me crazy, but I think Kobe silences the critics this season by having a very efficient season while being surrounded by his worst supporting cast since 2007. However, it’s Durant’s time to reign supreme in the NBA and his greatness will truly be appreciated and recognized when he adds an MVP to his trophy collection.
5.) Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving
Irving has serious game and will improve the Cavaliers more than you might think. He doesn’t exactly have a roster loaded with talent around him, but he’ll make his teammates better by setting them up with impressive passes and providing a legitimate scoring threat at the point guard position. Derrick Williams and Kemba Walker are going to contend for this award too, and Brandon Knight is my sleeper pick for ROY, but Irving is the best player in this draft class and will prove it.
6.) Biggest Surprise: Golden State Warriors
With plenty of young talent (Steph Curry, Monta Ellis, Klay Thompson) and solid inside presences in David Lee and Andris Biedrins, new coach Mark Jackson will have some impressive tools to work with this season. Jackson seems prepared to take the Warriors from cellar-dweller back to relevance once again. Although they play in a rather difficult division and conference, the Warriors will be a team that could threaten for the seventh or eighth seed in the West and has the capability to make big improvements this season.
7.) Biggest Disappointment: Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies caught fire towards the end of the regular season last season and even defeated the top seeded Spurs in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. Many people expect this team to take the next step towards becoming a legitimate championship contender, but I predict the opposite. The Grizzlies may still be playoff bound, but won’t be as dominant as some optimists may expect.
8.) Breakout Player: Eric Gordon
Lets face it: This is going to be a LONG season for the New Orleans Hornets and their fans. On the bright side, Eric Gordon will finally have the opportunity to take this team over and prove to the world how talented he really is. I was a big fan of Gordon’s while he was at Indiana University, and it’s clear that this kid has the offensive capability to average 20+ points per game. Don’t be surprised if Gordon is on the Western Conference All-Star team, either.
9.) Hottest Coaching Seat: Tie – Mike D’Antoni and Erik Spoelstra.
Both the Knicks and Heat have high expectations for themselves this year. D’Antoni could be fired mid-season if the Knicks don’t start the season as they should, and Erik Spoelstra will be in deep, deep trouble if the Heat fail to win an NBA title this year. Both coaches have rosters loaded with superstars, but as we have learned in the past, that doesn’t always equate to winning. D’Antoni and Spoelstra will both be viewed as expendable if their respective teams don’t live up to expectations.
10.) Biggest Trade: Dwight Howard.
C’mon…really? I need to explain this one? We’ll just put it this way: It’s not a matter of if, but when Dwight Howard will be traded. Orlando’s front office knows they can’t risk being LeBron’d or Bosh’d and instead will take the Carmelo Anthony route by trading their superstar center and begin the rebuilding process immediately. My bet? Dwight Howard is in a Lakers uniform by the end of January at the latest.
Good stuff man. I agree with the Warriors, Memphis and Kevin Durant being MVP. I think Mark Jackson will be Coach of the Year. I don’t see Chicago beating Miami yet until we see if Taj Gibson improves and if Rip Hamilton can be that solid option. Count me in with the experts who are picking Miami this year but I’ll be ready to expect anything this year.
Not sure what to expect in this rookie class but you know who won’t win Rookie of the Year? Jimmer Fredette.
I hope you’re right about KD being mvp and Gordon having a breakout year, for the sake of my fantasy team
Hey great post. I like the Bulls in the finals, but would go with them to win. Blake Griffin would be my MVP, and I think rookie of the year would be Derrick Williams. Good job!
Good to see someone else not taking the bait on the Clippers. Not only are the points you made on Los Angeles’ “other” team absolutely correct, but the one thing that that has kept the Clips a train wreck for three decades is still in place – they are still owned by Donald Sterling.